March 7, 2017

Counterfactuals and Probability by Moritz Schulz

By Moritz Schulz

This quantity explores counterfactual concept and language. we will be able to quite often assessment counterfactual questions probabilistically, predicting what will be most likely or not going to ensue. Schulz describes those probabilistic methods of comparing counterfactual questions and turns the information right into a novel account of the workings of counterfactual thought.

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This quantity explores counterfactual suggestion and language. we will be able to as a rule review counterfactual questions probabilistically, predicting what will be most probably or not going to occur. Schulz describes Read more...

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Counterfactuals and Probability

This quantity explores counterfactual suggestion and language. we will often overview counterfactual questions probabilistically, predicting what will be most likely or not going to occur. Schulz describes those probabilistic methods of comparing counterfactual questions and turns the knowledge right into a novel account of the workings of counterfactual idea.

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The ratio definition of conditional probability leaves the conditional probability of A under B undefined if B is assigned probability zero, for division by zero is not defined. There are various possibilities to deal with this issue. The first and obvious one is to accept the consequence that conditional probabilities are sometimes undefined. A second possibility is to look for a natural extension of the ratio definition covering the case in which the denominator is undefined.  To some extent, this stipulation is structurally similar to the stipulation that a conditional is vacuously true if its antecedent is impossible.

It may have been his daughter Linda or his wife Elizabeth. It is much more likely that it was written by Linda, because Elizabeth told him that she would be going on a business trip and would not be back before the other day. But Elizabeth’s plans may have changed on short notice. In any case, Shaker seems right in thinking: () If Linda is not home tonight, Elizabeth will be. After this, Shaker receives a call from work and has to spend the whole night away from home. What should Shaker think at the dawn of the new day about the following counterfactual?

Instead, one may OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, //, SPi  introduction look for an alternative explanation of the evaluation constraint. Secondly, one may deny one of the major premises of the argument. Since they are concerned with the epistemic profile of counterfactuals, it may be possible to escape the conclusion of the argument by holding that our epistemic access to counterfactuals is limited in a principled way. The subsequent two chapters are grouped according to these two basic options.

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