By Asian Development Bank
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Additional info for Asian Development Outlook 2011: South-South Economic Links
The box figure shows quarterly export volumes from the two subregions to the PRC. Their export volumes to the PRC decreased by 10%–50% during the global downturn but in most cases more than fully recovered to starting levels. This suggests a possible link between the robust recovery of the two subregions and their exports to the PRC. Quarterly export volumes to the People’s Republic of China Hong Kong, China Rep. of Korea Philippines Taipei,China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Q1 2008 = 100 160 120 80 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 09 10 Source: Park and Shin (forthcoming).
That is, US demand for final goods is driving the PRC’s demand for components from, say, the Republic of Korea. The evidence has two interesting implications. One is that exports to the US still have a big effect on the performance of East and Southeast Asian economies, despite Asia’s growing weight in the world economy. The other is that exports to the PRC contributed to its neighbors’ recovery from the global crisis. This provides some grounds for optimism about the PRC’s role as a second engine of growth.
Unsurprisingly, some commodity indexes initially fell heavily after news of the earthquake, though the impact on most commodity prices will wear off quickly. Where there may be some lingering effects is in energy markets. The unfolding nuclear crisis may raise worldwide concerns about the safety of nuclear energy, and may benefit energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Timor-Leste if those concerns lead to a medium-term shift in the global energy mix. Other transmission channels include tourism from Japan and remittances of those foreign workers likely to be affected in the very short term.
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